Research

What happens after… a gap up, an NR7, a 52-week high?

Every common chart event across 1,422 NSE stocks over two years, and what followed over the next 1, 5 and 20 sessions, against an ordinary day. Pick an event. One caution: the study uses stocks that are actively traded today, and stocks that did well are more likely to be among them, which flatters past results.

After a stock opened at least 2% above the previous close

9,427 cases over the last two years across 1,422 stocks, against an ordinary day.

Next session
53% higher
45% higher
average +0.40% vs -0.05% · median +0.15% vs -0.22%
5 sessions later
60% higher
44% higher
average +1.98% vs -0.01% · median +1.35% vs -0.56%
20 sessions later
59% higher
45% higher
average +4.99% vs +0.54% · median +2.90% vs -1.16%
After “Gap up 2%+”Any day

Spread of 20-session returns

Bars: after the event. White ticks: any day. Wider bars on both sides mean bigger moves either way.

-20% to -18%: 3.4% of cases (any day 2.6%)-18% to -16%: 1.4% of cases (any day 1.6%)-16% to -14%: 2.0% of cases (any day 2.4%)-14% to -12%: 2.8% of cases (any day 3.4%)-12% to -10%: 3.7% of cases (any day 4.9%)-10% to -8%: 4.5% of cases (any day 6.3%)-8% to -6%: 5.1% of cases (any day 7.6%)-6% to -4%: 5.9% of cases (any day 8.6%)-4% to -2%: 6.2% of cases (any day 8.7%)-2% to +0%: 6.4% of cases (any day 8.9%)+0% to +2%: 6.2% of cases (any day 7.6%)+2% to +4%: 5.6% of cases (any day 6.6%)+4% to +6%: 5.4% of cases (any day 5.5%)+6% to +8%: 4.9% of cases (any day 4.6%)+8% to +10%: 4.9% of cases (any day 3.8%)+10% to +12%: 4.3% of cases (any day 3.0%)+12% to +14%: 4.0% of cases (any day 2.5%)+14% to +16%: 3.4% of cases (any day 2.1%)+16% to +18%: 2.9% of cases (any day 1.7%)+18% to +20%: 17.1% of cases (any day 7.4%)-20%-15%-10%-5%+0%+5%+10%+15%+20%

Questions

What happens after a stock gaps up?
Across 9,427 gap-ups of 2% or more in the last two years, the stock was higher 20 sessions later 59% of the time (average +4.99%), against 45% for any day.
Do 52-week highs keep going up?
After 7,437 new 52-week closing highs, stocks were higher 20 sessions later 48% of the time, average +0.81%, against 45% and +0.54% for any day.
Is this a trading strategy?
No. These are averages over thousands of past cases, before costs, with a wide spread of outcomes. The stocks studied are the ones actively traded today, which leaves out companies that faded away and makes past results look better than they were. They show how markets behaved, not what will happen next.

Related tools

Market, sectors and every stock’s own page.

From NSE’s daily files, adjusted for splits and bonuses. Past patterns are not a forecast. Information, not investment advice; ChartMine is not a SEBI-registered adviser.

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