Seasonality · SENSEX
SENSEX on Lok Sabha election results.2009–2024, every event.
How SENSEX moved on lok sabha election results: average +2.93%, up 50% of the time across 4 events (2009–2024), with the path 10 days before and after.
Average on the day
+2.93%
median +0.07%Closed higher
50%
4 events5 days later
+4.85%
higher 75% of the timeTypical size of the move
±6.19%
average absolute moveThe average path, 10 days before to 10 days after
% change from the close before the event. The green line is the average, the dashed line the median, and the shaded band covers the middle half of all events.
AverageMedianMiddle 50% of events
Every election results, year by year
Latest first. “10 days before” is the run-up into the event; “+5” and “+10 days” are measured from the close before the event.
| Date | Event | On the day | Opening gap | 10 days before | +5 days | +10 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Jun 2024 | Lok Sabha 2024 results (counting)Tuesday. Trading day; Nifty fell ~6% as BJP lost single-party majority (exit-poll rally on Mon 3 Jun preceded it). | -5.74% | -0.24% | +3.33% | -0.02% | +1.14% |
| 23 May 2019 | Lok Sabha 2019 results (counting)Thursday. Trading day (also an F&O-week day). | -0.76% | +1.23% | +3.50% | +1.85% | +1.29% |
| 16 May 2014 | Lok Sabha 2014 results (counting)Friday. Trading day (NDA majority). | +0.90% | +1.53% | +6.64% | +3.30% | +1.30% |
| 18 May 2009 | Lok Sabha 2009 results (counting)SATURDAY - markets closed. First reaction Mon 18 May 2009: Sensex/Nifty hit upper circuits (~+17%), trading halted for the day. | +17.34% | +10.73% | +6.75% | +14.29% | +21.91% |
Questions
How does SENSEX usually move on Lok Sabha election results?
Across 4 events from 2009 to 2024, SENSEX moved +2.93% on average on the day (median +0.07%). It closed higher 50% of the time. The average size of the move, up or down, was 6.19%.
What happened in the days after?
Five trading days later, SENSEX was +4.85% on average from the pre-event close, and higher 75% of the time.
What were the biggest moves?
The best day was 18 May 2009 (+17.34%); the worst was 4 Jun 2024 (-5.74%).
Historical statistics from daily closing prices (adjusted for bonuses and splits). Past patterns do not guarantee future results. This is information, not investment advice.