Seasonality · BANK NIFTY
BANK NIFTY on RBI policy day.2010–2026, every event.
How BANK NIFTY moved on rbi policy day: average -0.02%, up 49% of the time across 114 events (2010–2026), with the path 10 days before and after.
Average on the day
-0.02%
median -0.03%Closed higher
49%
114 events5 days later
+0.05%
higher 54% of the timeTypical size of the move
±1.26%
average absolute moveThe average path, 10 days before to 10 days after
% change from the close before the event. The green line is the average, the dashed line the median, and the shaded band covers the middle half of all events.
AverageMedianMiddle 50% of events
Every RBI policy day, year by year
Latest first. “10 days before” is the run-up into the event; “+5” and “+10 days” are measured from the close before the event.
| Date | Event | On the day | Opening gap | 10 days before | +5 days | +10 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Oct 2026 | MPCWednesday. Repo HIKE 25 bps 5.25%->5.50% (first hike since Feb 2023); stance to calibrated tightening (stance vote split per press reports). | -0.13% | -0.29% | -2.38% | +0.34% | – |
| 5 Aug 2026 | MPCWednesday. Hold at 5.25%. | -0.29% | -0.17% | +0.12% | -0.04% | -1.15% |
| 5 Jun 2026 | MPCFriday. Hold at 5.25%. | +0.35% | +0.18% | +1.39% | +4.62% | +6.22% |
| 8 Apr 2026 | MPCWednesday. Hold at 5.25%. | +5.67% | +4.15% | -1.37% | +6.39% | +6.81% |
| 6 Feb 2026 | MPCFriday. Hold at 5.25%; neutral. | +0.09% | -0.16% | +1.46% | +0.20% | +1.85% |
| 5 Dec 2025 | MPCFriday. Repo cut 25 bps 5.50%->5.25%. | +0.82% | -0.26% | -0.10% | +0.17% | -0.37% |
| 1 Oct 2025 | MPCWednesday. Hold at 5.50%. | +1.30% | +0.03% | -0.93% | +2.85% | +5.10% |
| 6 Aug 2025 | MPCWednesday. Hold at 5.50%. | +0.09% | -0.06% | -2.46% | -0.32% | +0.71% |
| 6 Jun 2025 | MPCFriday. Repo cut 50 bps to 5.50%; CRR cut 100 bps (phased) to 3%; stance to neutral. | +1.47% | -0.11% | +1.49% | -0.42% | +0.88% |
| 9 Apr 2025 | MPCWednesday. Repo cut 25 bps to 6.00%; stance to accommodative. | -0.54% | -0.05% | -2.31% | +9.49% | +9.74% |
| 7 Feb 2025 | MPC (Malhotra first)Friday. Repo cut 25 bps 6.50%->6.25%. | -0.44% | +0.20% | +4.16% | -2.55% | -2.78% |
| 6 Dec 2024 | MPC (Das last)Friday. Hold at 6.50% (4-2); CRR cut 50 bps to 4.0%. | -0.18% | +0.06% | +6.41% | -0.04% | -5.31% |
| 9 Oct 2024 | MPCWednesday. Hold at 6.50% (5-1); stance changed to neutral. | -0.03% | +0.28% | -5.70% | +1.53% | +0.43% |
| 8 Aug 2024 | MPCThursday. Hold at 6.50% (4-2). | +0.08% | -0.13% | -2.33% | +0.79% | +1.63% |
| 7 Jun 2024 | MPCFriday. Hold at 6.50% (4-2). | +1.04% | +0.05% | +1.07% | +1.44% | +4.89% |
| 5 Apr 2024 | MPCFriday. Hold at 6.50% (5-1). | +0.90% | +0.09% | +3.61% | -0.60% | -0.19% |
| 8 Feb 2024 | MPCThursday. Hold at 6.50% (5-1). | -1.76% | +0.34% | +1.78% | +0.87% | +2.40% |
| 8 Dec 2023 | MPCFriday. Hold at 6.50%. | +0.90% | -0.09% | +7.81% | +2.78% | +1.39% |
| 6 Oct 2023 | MPCFriday. Hold at 6.50%. | +0.33% | +0.41% | -2.58% | +0.17% | -1.11% |
| 10 Aug 2023 | MPCThursday. Hold at 6.50%; incremental CRR 10% announced. | -0.76% | -0.19% | -2.57% | -2.29% | -1.45% |
| 8 Jun 2023 | MPCThursday. Hold at 6.50%. | -0.63% | -0.15% | +1.37% | -1.88% | -1.24% |
| 6 Apr 2023 | MPCThursday. Hold at 6.50% (surprise pause). | +0.10% | -0.14% | +4.16% | +3.08% | +3.99% |
| 8 Feb 2023 | MPCWednesday. Repo hike 25 bps to 6.50% (last hike of cycle). | +0.11% | +0.12% | -3.11% | +0.58% | -3.60% |
| 7 Dec 2022 | MPCWednesday. Repo hike 35 bps to 6.25%. | -0.09% | +0.04% | +1.61% | +2.11% | -1.21% |
| 30 Sep 2022 | MPCFriday. Repo hike 50 bps to 5.90%. | +2.61% | +0.03% | -8.64% | +3.84% | +6.04% |
| 5 Aug 2022 | MPCFriday. Repo hike 50 bps to 5.40%. | +0.44% | +0.30% | +4.29% | +3.93% | +2.49% |
| 8 Jun 2022 | MPCWednesday. Repo hike 50 bps to 4.90%. | -0.14% | +0.48% | +2.06% | -4.73% | -6.15% |
| 4 May 2022 | MPC (off-cycle)Wednesday. UNSCHEDULED (announced ~14:00 IST intraday). Repo hike 40 bps 4.00%->4.40%; CRR +50 bps to 4.50%. | -2.49% | +0.28% | -1.54% | -4.07% | -5.53% |
| 8 Apr 2022 | MPCFriday. Hold at 4.00%; SDF introduced at 3.75% (effective floor up 40 bps). | +0.52% | +0.17% | +5.71% | -3.24% | -3.07% |
| 10 Feb 2022 | MPCThursday. Hold at 4.00% (meeting rescheduled from 7-9 Feb to 8-10 Feb). | +1.04% | +0.50% | +2.40% | -2.79% | -8.76% |
| 8 Dec 2021 | MPCWednesday. Hold at 4.00%. | +1.82% | +1.19% | -1.76% | +0.47% | -4.34% |
| 8 Oct 2021 | MPCFriday. Hold at 4.00%. | +0.06% | +0.41% | -0.05% | +5.12% | +9.11% |
| 6 Aug 2021 | MPCFriday. Hold at 4.00%. | -0.07% | +0.11% | +3.34% | +0.93% | -1.98% |
| 4 Jun 2021 | MPCFriday. Hold at 4.00%. | -1.00% | +0.02% | +6.94% | -1.69% | -3.06% |
| 7 Apr 2021 | MPCWednesday. Hold at 4.00%. | +1.51% | +0.09% | -4.86% | -1.20% | -2.40% |
| 5 Feb 2021 | MPCFriday. Hold at 4.00%. | +0.88% | +0.82% | +8.61% | +2.16% | +1.41% |
| 4 Dec 2020 | MPCFriday. Hold at 4.00%. | +2.05% | +0.42% | -1.01% | +3.93% | +4.30% |
| 9 Oct 2020 | MPCFriday. Hold at 4.00%. | +2.83% | +0.52% | +9.50% | +1.47% | +5.55% |
| 6 Aug 2020 | MPCThursday. Hold at 4.00%; accommodative. | +0.62% | +0.62% | -6.00% | +0.79% | +3.67% |
| 22 May 2020 | MPC (off-cycle)Friday. UNSCHEDULED (May 20-22, advanced from June). Repo cut 40 bps 4.40%->4.00%; reverse repo 3.35%. | -2.57% | -1.02% | -9.01% | +12.54% | +19.47% |
| 17 Apr 2020 | RBI Governor statement (unscheduled, non-MPC)Friday. UNSCHEDULED. Repo unchanged 4.40%; reverse repo cut 25 bps 4.00%->3.75%; TLTRO 2.0. Not an MPC decision. | +6.61% | +5.13% | -2.85% | +0.96% | +1.77% |
| 27 Mar 2020 | MPC (off-cycle, advanced from April)Friday. UNSCHEDULED/advanced meeting (Mar 24, 26, 27). Repo cut 75 bps 5.15%->4.40%; reverse repo cut 90 bps to 4.00%; CRR cut 100 bps to 3%. | +1.81% | +6.06% | -18.18% | -2.81% | -1.09% |
| 6 Feb 2020 | MPCThursday. Hold at 5.15%. | +0.97% | +0.22% | -0.01% | +0.74% | -0.19% |
| 5 Dec 2019 | MPCThursday. Hold at 5.15% (surprise pause). | -0.83% | +0.33% | +1.99% | -0.98% | +0.82% |
| 4 Oct 2019 | MPCFriday. Repo cut 25 bps to 5.15%. | -2.40% | +0.94% | +4.57% | -0.82% | +3.51% |
| 7 Aug 2019 | MPCWednesday. Repo cut 35 bps to 5.40%. | -1.14% | +0.11% | -3.80% | +0.70% | -3.79% |
| 6 Jun 2019 | MPCThursday. Repo cut 25 bps to 5.75%; stance to accommodative. | -2.32% | -0.21% | +4.23% | -1.94% | -2.56% |
| 4 Apr 2019 | MPCThursday. Repo cut 25 bps to 6.00%. | -0.63% | +0.18% | +1.09% | -1.02% | -1.35% |
| 7 Feb 2019 | MPC (Das first)Thursday. Repo cut 25 bps 6.50%->6.25%; stance to neutral. | -0.06% | +0.08% | +0.56% | -1.58% | -1.28% |
| 5 Dec 2018 | MPCWednesday. Hold at 6.50%; calibrated tightening. | -0.65% | -0.46% | +1.49% | -0.19% | +2.26% |
| 5 Oct 2018 | MPCFriday. Hold at 6.50% (surprise); stance to calibrated tightening. | -1.51% | -0.31% | -6.13% | +2.32% | +1.04% |
| 1 Aug 2018 | MPCWednesday. Repo hike 25 bps 6.25%->6.50%. | -0.60% | -0.29% | +2.80% | +1.07% | +0.22% |
| 6 Jun 2018 | MPCWednesday. Repo hike 25 bps 6.00%->6.25%. | +0.44% | +0.06% | +1.84% | +1.49% | +1.17% |
| 5 Apr 2018 | MPCThursday. Hold at 6.00%; neutral. | +2.61% | +1.10% | -0.48% | +4.42% | +4.13% |
| 7 Feb 2018 | MPCWednesday. Hold at 6.00%; neutral. | -0.55% | +0.98% | -4.55% | -1.50% | -3.32% |
| 6 Dec 2017 | MPCWednesday. Hold at 6.00%. | -1.09% | -0.23% | -2.46% | -0.50% | +1.86% |
| 4 Oct 2017 | MPCWednesday. Hold at 6.00%. | +0.04% | +0.09% | -3.77% | +0.02% | +0.87% |
| 2 Aug 2017 | MPCWednesday. Repo cut 25 bps 6.25%->6.00%. | -0.27% | +0.27% | +4.58% | -2.98% | -3.53% |
| 7 Jun 2017 | MPCWednesday. Hold at 6.25%. | +0.65% | +0.28% | +3.69% | +0.35% | +1.25% |
| 6 Apr 2017 | MPCThursday. Hold at 6.25%; LAF corridor narrowed to +/-25 bps (reverse repo raised to 6.00%). | -0.14% | -0.37% | +3.01% | +0.16% | -0.47% |
| 8 Feb 2017 | MPCWednesday. Hold at 6.25%; stance accommodative->neutral. | -0.40% | +0.04% | +7.88% | -0.80% | +2.66% |
| 7 Dec 2016 | MPCWednesday. Hold at 6.25%; incremental CRR withdrawn. | -1.01% | +0.51% | -0.69% | -0.43% | -1.83% |
| 4 Oct 2016 | MPC (first MPC meeting)Tuesday. Repo cut 25 bps 6.50%->6.25%. | +0.43% | +0.27% | -1.60% | -3.24% | +0.36% |
| 9 Aug 2016 | RBI Third Bi-monthly Policy 2016-17 (Rajan last)Tuesday. Hold at 6.50%. | -0.03% | +0.15% | -0.26% | +0.54% | +2.20% |
| 7 Jun 2016 | RBI Second Bi-monthly Policy 2016-17Tuesday. Hold at 6.50%. | +1.57% | +0.71% | +7.70% | +0.01% | -0.30% |
| 5 Apr 2016 | RBI First Bi-monthly Policy 2016-17Tuesday. Repo cut 25 bps 6.75%->6.50%. | -3.06% | -0.39% | +4.83% | +0.54% | +3.01% |
| 2 Feb 2016 | RBI Sixth Bi-monthly Policy 2015-16Tuesday. Hold at 6.75%. | -1.61% | +0.26% | +0.71% | -2.87% | -7.50% |
| 1 Dec 2015 | RBI Fifth Bi-monthly Policy 2015-16Tuesday. Hold at 6.75%. | -0.18% | +0.15% | +2.94% | -3.61% | -5.92% |
| 29 Sep 2015 | RBI Fourth Bi-monthly Policy 2015-16Tuesday. Repo cut 50 bps 7.25%->6.75%. | +1.06% | -1.41% | +3.03% | +3.02% | +2.59% |
| 4 Aug 2015 | RBI Third Bi-monthly Policy 2015-16Tuesday. Hold at 7.25%. | +0.31% | +0.28% | -0.62% | -1.57% | -0.71% |
| 2 Jun 2015 | RBI Second Bi-monthly Policy 2015-16Tuesday. Repo cut 25 bps 7.50%->7.25%. | -3.44% | +0.21% | +1.05% | -6.05% | -5.45% |
| 7 Apr 2015 | RBI First Bi-monthly Policy 2015-16Tuesday. Hold at 7.50%. | -0.73% | +0.33% | -1.09% | +0.60% | -1.94% |
| 4 Mar 2015 | RBI unscheduled repo cutWednesday. UNSCHEDULED, announced intraday. Repo cut 25 bps 7.75%->7.50%. | -1.59% | +2.91% | +3.44% | -4.10% | -5.76% |
| 3 Feb 2015 | RBI Sixth Bi-monthly Policy 2014-15Tuesday. Hold at 7.75%; SLR cut 50 bps. | -2.43% | +0.38% | +3.34% | -5.60% | -2.87% |
| 15 Jan 2015 | RBI unscheduled repo cutThursday. UNSCHEDULED, announced intraday during market hours. Repo cut 25 bps 8.00%->7.75%. | +3.40% | +3.96% | -0.71% | +7.06% | +6.67% |
| 2 Dec 2014 | RBI Fifth Bi-monthly Policy 2014-15Tuesday. Hold at 8.00%. | +0.16% | -0.49% | +5.02% | -1.27% | -3.75% |
| 30 Sep 2014 | RBI Fourth Bi-monthly Policy 2014-15Tuesday. Hold at 8.00%. | -0.53% | -0.21% | -4.29% | -0.13% | +4.80% |
| 5 Aug 2014 | RBI Third Bi-monthly Policy 2014-15Tuesday. Hold at 8.00%. | +0.33% | +0.27% | -0.96% | -1.22% | +1.57% |
| 3 Jun 2014 | RBI Second Bi-monthly Policy 2014-15Tuesday. Hold at 8.00%; SLR cut 50 bps. | -0.19% | +0.32% | +0.43% | +0.92% | +0.56% |
| 1 Apr 2014 | RBI First Bi-monthly Policy 2014-15Tuesday. Hold at 8.00%. (Bi-monthly cycle starts.) | -1.20% | +0.50% | +5.18% | +1.53% | +0.35% |
| 28 Jan 2014 | RBI Third Quarter Review 2013-14Tuesday. Repo +25 bps to 8.00%. | -0.31% | +0.01% | -4.37% | -3.31% | -2.80% |
| 18 Dec 2013 | RBI Mid-Quarter Review Dec 2013Wednesday. Hold at 7.75% (surprise hold). | +1.33% | -0.70% | -0.02% | +1.58% | -0.23% |
| 29 Oct 2013 | RBI Second Quarter Review 2013-14Tuesday. Repo +25 bps 7.50%->7.75%; MSF cut to 8.75%. | +4.35% | +0.06% | +1.42% | +6.74% | -1.77% |
| 20 Sep 2013 | RBI Mid-Quarter Review Sep 2013 (Rajan first)Friday. Repo +25 bps 7.25%->7.50%; MSF cut 75 bps to 9.50%. | -4.14% | +0.14% | +26.03% | -11.20% | -9.57% |
| 30 Jul 2013 | RBI First Quarter Review 2013-14Tuesday. Hold: repo 7.25%, CRR unchanged. | -1.18% | +0.08% | -12.38% | -6.08% | -2.95% |
| 15 Jul 2013 | RBI exceptional measures (rupee defence)Monday. UNSCHEDULED, after market hours Monday. Repo unchanged 7.25%; MSF and Bank Rate raised 200 bps 8.25%->10.25% (MSF = repo+300); LAF capped at 1% NDTL. Market reaction 16 Jul. | +0.57% | -0.37% | +0.91% | -5.42% | -11.87% |
| 17 Jun 2013 | RBI Mid-Quarter Review Jun 2013Monday. Hold at 7.25%; CRR 4.0%. | +0.40% | +0.05% | -4.43% | -6.24% | -1.74% |
| 3 May 2013 | RBI Annual Policy Statement 2013-14Friday. Repo cut 25 bps 7.50%->7.25%. | -2.49% | -0.24% | +10.27% | +0.33% | +4.17% |
| 19 Mar 2013 | RBI Mid-Quarter Review Mar 2013Tuesday. Repo cut 25 bps to 7.50%. | -1.94% | +0.52% | +1.38% | -4.87% | -5.19% |
| 29 Jan 2013 | RBI Third Quarter Review 2012-13Tuesday. Repo cut 25 bps to 7.75%; CRR cut 25 bps to 4.00%. | -0.46% | +0.18% | +0.18% | -2.45% | -2.94% |
| 18 Dec 2012 | RBI Mid-Quarter Review Dec 2012Tuesday. Hold at 8.00%; CRR 4.25%. | +0.40% | +0.23% | +2.67% | +0.42% | +2.89% |
| 30 Oct 2012 | RBI Second Quarter Review 2012-13Tuesday. Repo hold 8.00%; CRR cut 25 bps to 4.25%. | -2.35% | -0.04% | +0.73% | +0.58% | +0.54% |
| 17 Sep 2012 | RBI Mid-Quarter Review Sep 2012Monday. Repo hold 8.00%; CRR cut 25 bps to 4.50%. | +3.18% | +1.45% | +6.82% | +7.31% | +7.25% |
| 31 Jul 2012 | RBI First Quarter Review 2012-13Tuesday. Hold at 8.00%; CRR 4.75%. | -0.27% | +0.49% | -1.48% | +1.73% | +1.03% |
| 18 Jun 2012 | RBI Mid-Quarter Review Jun 2012Monday. Hold at 8.00%. | -3.13% | +1.13% | +8.60% | -1.38% | +3.45% |
| 17 Apr 2012 | RBI Annual Policy Statement 2012-13Tuesday. Repo cut 50 bps to 8.00%. | +0.83% | +0.67% | +5.09% | -2.08% | -1.49% |
| 15 Mar 2012 | RBI Mid-Quarter Review Mar 2012Thursday. Hold at 8.50%; CRR 4.75% (after an unscheduled 75 bps CRR cut earlier in March - see note in summary). | -2.71% | +0.04% | +4.57% | -6.58% | -8.83% |
| 24 Jan 2012 | RBI Third Quarter Review 2011-12Tuesday. Hold at 8.50%; CRR cut 50 bps to 5.50%. | +3.30% | +0.17% | +12.25% | +4.50% | +8.40% |
| 16 Dec 2011 | RBI Mid-Quarter Review Dec 2011Friday. Hold at 8.50%; CRR 6.0%. | -3.24% | +0.44% | -1.39% | -1.76% | -5.64% |
| 25 Oct 2011 | RBI Second Quarter Review 2011-12Tuesday. Repo +25 bps to 8.50% (last hike of cycle). | -1.41% | +0.64% | +5.22% | +1.38% | -3.68% |
| 16 Sep 2011 | RBI Mid-Quarter Review Sep 2011Friday. Repo +25 bps to 8.25%. | +0.62% | +0.87% | +1.33% | -2.95% | -1.99% |
| 26 Jul 2011 | RBI First Quarter Review 2011-12Tuesday. Repo +50 bps to 8.00%. | -2.43% | +0.05% | +2.30% | -5.69% | -10.49% |
| 16 Jun 2011 | RBI Mid-Quarter Review Jun 2011Thursday. Repo +25 bps to 7.50%. | -0.51% | -0.72% | -3.69% | -0.94% | +5.82% |
| 3 May 2011 | RBI Annual Policy Statement 2011-12Tuesday. Repo +50 bps to 7.25%; repo made the single policy rate, reverse repo pegged 100 bps below; MSF introduced. | -3.07% | -0.19% | -4.19% | -2.08% | -5.11% |
| 17 Mar 2011 | RBI Mid-Quarter Review Mar 2011Thursday. Repo +25 bps to 6.75%. | -0.96% | -0.69% | +0.66% | +1.03% | +6.83% |
| 25 Jan 2011 | RBI Third Quarter Review 2010-11Tuesday. Repo +25 bps to 6.50%. | -2.49% | +0.29% | +4.21% | -6.11% | -9.28% |
| 16 Dec 2010 | RBI Mid-Quarter Review Dec 2010Thursday. Hold: repo 6.25%, reverse repo 5.25%, CRR 6.0% (SLR cut 1 ppt). | +2.04% | +0.31% | -9.05% | +2.51% | +5.32% |
| 2 Nov 2010 | RBI Second Quarter Review 2010-11Tuesday. Repo +25 bps to 6.25%; reverse repo +25 to 5.25%. | +0.28% | +0.12% | +3.27% | +3.03% | -1.65% |
| 16 Sep 2010 | RBI Mid-Quarter Review Sep 2010Thursday. Repo +25 bps to 6.00%; reverse repo +50 bps to 5.00%. | +0.37% | -0.22% | +11.55% | +1.32% | +3.16% |
| 27 Jul 2010 | RBI First Quarter Review 2010-11Tuesday. Repo +25 bps 5.50%->5.75%; reverse repo +50 bps 4.00%->4.50%. | +0.67% | +0.12% | +1.76% | +4.78% | +4.95% |
| 2 Jul 2010 | RBI unscheduled policy actionFriday. UNSCHEDULED. Repo +25 bps 5.25%->5.50%, reverse repo 3.75%->4.00%. Friday, announced after market hours (Tribune: unscheduled). | +0.08% | +0.15% | -2.75% | +3.90% | +7.10% |
| 20 Apr 2010 | RBI Annual Policy Statement 2010-11Tuesday. Repo +25 bps to 5.25%; reverse repo to 3.75%; CRR +25 bps to 6.0%. | +1.54% | +0.13% | -2.15% | +4.88% | +3.45% |
| 19 Mar 2010 | RBI unscheduled policy actionFriday. UNSCHEDULED. Repo +25 bps 4.75%->5.00%, reverse repo 3.25%->3.50%. Announced Friday; reported after market hours - verify intraday timing. | +0.20% | +0.45% | +2.65% | +2.87% | +5.14% |
| 29 Jan 2010 | RBI Third Quarter Review 2009-10Friday. Repo hold at 4.75%; CRR raised 75 bps to 5.75% (repo level corroborated by 19 Mar 2010 circular moving 4.75->5.00). | +2.70% | -0.92% | -5.63% | -2.38% | -0.50% |
Questions
How does BANK NIFTY usually move on RBI policy day?
Across 114 events from 2010 to 2026, BANK NIFTY moved -0.02% on average on the day (median -0.03%). It closed higher 49% of the time. The average size of the move, up or down, was 1.26%.
What happened in the days after?
Five trading days later, BANK NIFTY was +0.05% on average from the pre-event close, and higher 54% of the time.
What were the biggest moves?
The best day was 17 Apr 2020 (+6.61%); the worst was 20 Sep 2013 (-4.14%).
Historical statistics from daily closing prices (adjusted for bonuses and splits). Past patterns do not guarantee future results. This is information, not investment advice.